wholesale_deal_analysis v1.0.0

name: wholesale_deal_analysis description: "Evaluate a wholesale real estate deal and its exit: build after repair value from sold comps, itemize the repair budget with contingency, compute the maximum allowable offer with both the quick 70 percent screen and a detailed cost build up, subtract the assignment fee to get the contract ceiling, and compare end buyer and wholesaler economics for an assignment and a double close side by side, with a runnable Python calculator. Triggers on wholesale deal analysis, maximum allowable offer or MAO, ARV and repair estimates, assignment fee math, or 'can I wholesale this property at this price'."

Wholesale Deal Analysis

Purpose

Price a wholesale deal from the resale backwards, so every party spread is proven before a contract is signed. The wholesaler contracts with the seller, then either assigns that contract to an end buyer for a fee or double closes and resells. The wholesaler sells an interest in a contract, not the property itself. A deal works only when three numbers all hold at once: the seller contract price, the end buyer all-in price, and the resale value the comps support.

This skill ships the worksheet most playbooks leave as prose. Run bin/wholesale_calc.py on a deal file and get the ARV evidence, both MAO ceilings, both exit routes, and a pass, watch, or fail verdict with the reason attached.

Workflow

1. Build the ARV from sold evidence. Pull 3 to 6 renovated comparable sales, close to the subject in location, size, bed and bath count, age, and style, sold in the last 90 days where possible and within 6 months at most. Adjust each comp, take the mean, and cross check with price per square foot. Full method in references/formulas.md. Never set ARV from an asking price, a listing, or purchase price plus repairs.
2. Itemize the repair budget. List roof, systems, kitchen, baths, cosmetic work, and structural items as separate lines. Per square foot ranges are a screening pass only. Add a stated contingency and use repairs with contingency in every calculation after this step. Sample deal with itemized repairs: assets/sample-deal.json.
3. Run the calculator. python3 bin/wholesale_calc.py <deal.json> prints the worksheet. Add --markdown report.md to save it. Deal fields: comps or arv, repair_items or repairs, contingency_pct, discount_pct (default 0.70), assignment_fee, contract_price, plus holding_costs, buy_closing_costs, selling_cost_pct or selling_costs, and buyer_profit_pct or buyer_profit for the detailed math. Percentages are decimals.
4. Read both ceilings, in order. Quick buyer MAO is ARV times the discount minus repairs. The contract ceiling is that MAO minus the assignment fee. Detailed buyer MAO is ARV minus repairs, holding, buy closing, selling costs, and the buyer profit target, itemized. When the two ceilings disagree, find which cost drives the gap before trusting either one.
5. Put the buyer and wholesaler economics side by side. At the stated contract price, report what the seller gets, what the end buyer pays in total, the buyer all-in cost, and the buyer profit if the resale lands at ARV. Then compare the wholesaler exits: assignment nets the fee with no property closing costs, a double close nets the spread minus two closings and any funding fee. Add a double_close block to the deal file to get that comparison.
6. Work the diligence checklist. Go through references/diligence-checklist.md. Each item is tied to the number it protects: comps protect ARV, systems and roof protect repairs, title and taxes protect the contract price, the assignment clause and state law protect the exit itself.
7. Stress the deal. Rerun with ARV at the low comp, with repairs up 20 percent, and with the resale 5 percent under ARV. A buyer profit that vanishes in any single run means the price falls or the deal dies.
8. Deliver the worksheet. Use the Output Contract below. Label every input as seller supplied, buyer supplied, comp derived, or assumption.

Worked example

The sample deal in assets/sample-deal.json, verified by running the calculator:

• Comps sold at $295,000, $305,000, and $300,000. ARV used: $300,000.
• Itemized repairs total $50,000. With a 10 percent contingency, repairs used are $55,000.
• Quick screen: $300,000 times 70 percent minus $55,000 gives a buyer MAO of $155,000. Minus a $10,000 assignment fee, the quick contract ceiling is $145,000.
• Detailed build up: holding $6,000, buy closing $3,000, selling costs at 8 percent of ARV ($24,000), buyer profit target at 15 percent of ARV ($45,000). Detailed buyer MAO is $167,000 and the detailed contract ceiling is $157,000.
• At a $140,000 contract price: the seller gets $140,000, the end buyer pays $150,000 in total, the buyer all-in cost is $238,000, and the buyer profit at a $300,000 resale is $62,000. Verdict: PASS.
• Exits side by side at that price: assignment nets the $10,000 fee. A double close at a $150,000 resale to the end buyer nets $4,600 after $2,100 buy closing, $1,800 sell closing, and a $1,500 funding fee. Assignment nets $5,400 more on these inputs.
• The same deal at a $175,000 contract price returns FAIL from the calculator, over both ceilings, with the buyer profit cut to $27,000 against a $45,000 target.

Output Contract

Every analysis returns:

• ARV evidence: the comp set with sale prices, the mean, median, and low comp, the method used, and a note on any comp that was excluded and why.
• Repair budget: itemized lines, the base total, the contingency percent and dollars, and the total used in the math.
• Both ceilings: quick buyer MAO and contract ceiling, detailed buyer MAO and contract ceiling, with any detailed input that was missing named instead of estimated silently.
• Side by side economics: seller proceeds, end buyer total price, buyer all-in cost, buyer profit at ARV, and the wholesaler net for an assignment and for a double close.
• Flags: each calculator flag and each failed diligence item, with the number behind it.
• Verdict: PASS, WATCH, or FAIL, tied to the ceilings. PASS means the contract price sits under both ceilings. WATCH means it passes the detailed math and fails the quick screen, with the reason named. FAIL means it sits over the detailed ceiling.

Operating Rules

1. Build ARV only from sold, renovated comps. Listings, pending sales, asking prices, and automated valuations can support a comp set, they cannot be the comp set.
2. Subtract the assignment fee before naming a contract price. A wholesaler who prices to the buyer MAO and then adds a fee has priced the buyer out of the deal.
3. Treat the 70 percent rule as a screen, not an offer. The detailed build up, with a real buyer profit target and real costs, decides the offer. When a known buyer has stated criteria, those criteria replace the default discount.
4. Never fill a missing cost with a quiet default. The calculator refuses a detailed verdict when holding, closing, selling, or profit inputs are missing. Report the gap.
5. Check assignability and the law before marketing a contract. The purchase contract must allow assignment, seller disclosure duties vary by state and several states require them in writing, and some states and cities license or register wholesalers. One sourced example: Illinois, under 225 ILCS 454/1-10 as amended by Public Act 101-0357, treats dealing in assignable contracts on two or more occasions in any 12 month period as broker activity requiring a license. Verify the current rule for the property location from the statute or the state regulator, and route legal questions to a local real estate attorney. This skill is analysis, not legal advice.
6. Market the contract interest, not a property the wholesaler does not own, and only within what local law allows.
7. Keep the buyer honest test in the report: a deal the end buyer cannot profit from at ARV is a FAIL even when the fee alone looks attractive. Repeat buyers are the business.
8. State every assumption beside the number it feeds. An ARV, repair line, or hold period with no source named is a guess, and the report has to call it one.